This paper is from Session 6F: Teachers’ awareness of conceptual connections between probability and statistics

which comes under Topic 6: Innovation and reform in teaching probability within statistics

Odds that don’t add up

Presenter

• Michael Fletcher (Canterbury Christ Church University, United Kingdom)

Abstract

This paper examines a common probability misconception that students have. Although students are generally able to correctly calculate the probability of two independent events occurring they are often not able to use this calculation in a meaningful way. This paper will contextualise this probability misconception by using examples from television game shows. Extracts from the game shows will demonstrate how contestants routinely overestimate the probability of combined events. The decisions made by the contestants reduce their probability of success by a significant margin.