This paper is from Session 6A: Bayesian inference (probability) goes to school: meanings, tasks and instructional challenges

which comes under Topic 6: Innovation and reform in teaching probability within statistics

Proto-Bayesian reasoning of children in fourth class

Presenter

• Laura Martignon (Ludwigsburg University of Education, Germany)

Co-author

• Tim Erickson (Epistemological Engineering Oakland, United States)

Abstract

This paper is dedicated to the ecological rationality of certain information formats that facilitate proto-Bayesian reasoning of children. The formats of representation introduced are en-active, iconic and even symbolic and are based on so-called natural frequencies. Experiments are described that have been performed with fourth-graders recently at schools in Berlin and Ludwigsburg and which exhibit the success of these formats for fostering proto-Bayesian reasoning. Results on activities with a special website dedicated to conditional probabilities and Bayesian reasoning (www.eeps.com/riskicon ) are also presented and discussed.