This paper is from Session 6A: Bayesian inference (probability) goes to school: meanings, tasks and instructional challenges
Full topic list
which comes under Topic 6: Innovation and reform in teaching probability within statistics

(Monday 14th, 16:15-17:45)

Proto-Bayesian reasoning of children in fourth class



  • Tim Erickson (Epistemological Engineering Oakland, United States)


This paper is dedicated to the ecological rationality of certain information formats that facilitate proto-Bayesian reasoning of children. The formats of representation introduced are en-active, iconic and even symbolic and are based on so-called natural frequencies. Experiments are described that have been performed with fourth-graders recently at schools in Berlin and Ludwigsburg and which exhibit the success of these formats for fostering proto-Bayesian reasoning. Results on activities with a special website dedicated to conditional probabilities and Bayesian reasoning ( ) are also presented and discussed.